Sustainability of macroeconomic policies in selected MENA countries: Post financial and debt crises

In the wake of the recent financial and debt crises, the conduct of macroeconomic policies in the emerging MENA economies has recently become critical in determining those countries future economic situation, due to the accumulation since the early 1990s of a sizable level of external debt, and the pursuit by some countries of a fixed exchange rate regime. Using time series econometric models, this study assesses the sustainability of macroeconomic policies in a selected sample of 4 MENA countries. The empirical results point to sustainable fiscal and exchange rate policies in Tunisia and Morocco, and unsustainable external debt and exchange rate policies in Egypt and Jordan. While Egypt has recently moved to a flexible exchange rate regime, if Jordan still opts for maintaining a fixed exchange rate arrangement, it will have to implement crisis-prevention measures, namely by exercising fiscal discipline, and managing properly its external debt and foreign reserves.     

Do terror attacks affect the dollar-pound exchange rate? A nonparametric causality-in-quantiles analysis

While much significant research has been done to study the effects of terror attacks on stock markets, less is known about the response of exchange rates to terror attacks. We suggest a non-parametric causality-in-quantiles test to study whether (relative) terror attacks affect exchange-rate returns and volatility. Using data on the dollar-pound exchange rate to illustrate the test, we show that terror attacks mainly affect the lower and upper quantiles of the conditional distribution of exchange-rate returns, while misspecified (due to nonlinearity and structural breaks) linear Granger causality test show no evidence of predictability. Terror attacks also affect almost all quantiles of the conditional distribution of exchange-rate volatility (except the extreme upper-end), with the significance of the effect being particularly strong for the lower quantiles. The importance of terror attacks is shown to hold also under an alternative measure of volatility and for an important emerging-market exchange rate as well.     

Risk pricing of wholesale funds and the behavior of retail deposit rates

We explore the relationship between bank risk and retail deposits. Predicted risk premiums on wholesale funds explain retail rate heterogeneity through two channels. First, increased bank risk premiums encourage the bank to substitute from wholesale funds to small certificates of deposits (CD) by increasing small CD rates. Second, increased rival risk premiums in a local market require the bank to increase small CD rates even more. Our results are consistent with risk encouraging the use of small CDs as a marginal source of funds and promoting local market competition for small CDs. As risk premiums rise, banks also reduce rates on other retail deposits. Our approach has implications for regulatory and monetary policies and financial stability.     

基于可持续增长率的杜邦分析体系的研究

在经济全球化大环境下，企业具有更加多样化的会计信息，也就更需要能全面反映企业业绩的财务分析体系。多年来传统杜邦分析法虽因能系统、全面、直观地反映企业财务状况，提高对财务报表的分析效率，提升经营管理能力而得到企业的广泛应用，但它本身存在着诸多缺陷。针对其局限性，本文引入可持续增长率来改进传统的杜邦分析体系以更加符合现代企业的要求。     

Microstructures,financial reforms and informational efficiency in an emerging market

This paper investigates the effects of microstructures and financial reforms on time-varying informational efficiency in an emerging equity market setting. Our data comprises of firm level data from the Trinidad and Tobago Stock Exchange, over the period 1990–2013. Using a dynamic panel regression framework while controlling for firm size, we find that microstructures, specifically liquidity, volatility, automation and the number of shareholders have an important role in influencing the time-varying efficiency of this emerging market. The financial reforms, namely liberalisation and regulation are not found to have a notable influence. We also consider heterogeneity at the firm level, finding that the microstructures of the banking firms listed in this market have a greater impact on market efficiency, in relation to the other listed firms.     

Is exchange rate risk priced in microfinance?

High microcredit interest rates have often been a source of criticism against the microfinance movement. Research has focused attention on the cost structure of interest rates and more recently on the macroeconomic and macro-institutional factors. While cost structure is probably the most important determinant of interest rates, other factors can also matter. This paper uses an innovative measure of foreign exchange risk to explore its impact on microcredit interest rates. We show that microfinance institutions that operate in countries with fixed exchange rate regimes tend to charge lower interest rates than those operating in countries with floating exchange rate regimes.     

An investigation of return and volatility linkages among equity markets: A study of selected European and emerging countries

This paper investigates the linkages among equity returns (based on exchange traded funds, ETF) and transmission of volatilities in the following countries: Germany, Austria, Poland, Russia and Turkey. Multivariate Autoregressive Moving Averages (MARMA) and the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) methodologies are utilized. The findings include the existence of significant co-movement of returns among countries in the sample. Also, Turkish and Russian markets were found to be more volatile than Austria, Germany and Poland. However, volatilities in Russia and Turkey do not persist very long. Finally, there is strong evidence of volatility spillovers. All of the countries in the sample, with the exception of Turkey, experience volatility spillovers from other markets. The presence of spillovers among return series and persistence of volatilities are useful to investors interested in diversifying their portfolios and to traders/fund managers who are interested in maximizing returns.     

Monetary policy in open economies: Practical perspectives for pragmatic central bankers

This paper reviews and interprets some of the key policy implications that flow from a class of DSGE models for optimal monetary policy in the open economy. The framework suggests that good macroeconomic outcomes in open economies are possible by focusing inflation targeting that is implemented by a Taylor type rule, a rule that in equilibrium is reflected in the exchange rate as an asset price. Optimal monetary policy will not be able deliver a stationary (‘stable’) nominal exchange rate – let alone a fixed exchange rate or one that remains inside a target zone – because, absent a commitment device, optimal monetary can’t deliver a stationary domestic price level. Another feature in the data for inflation targeting countries that is consistent with monetary policy via Taylor type rule is that it will tend push the nominal exchange rate in the opposite direction from PPP in response to an ‘inflation’ shock—the ‘bad news god news’ result of Clarida and Waldman (2008. Is Bad News about Inflation Good News for the Exchange Rate. In: John Campbell, (Ed.), Asset Prices and Monetary Policy, Chicago: University of Chicago Press), Clarida and Waldman (2014. Bad News About Inflation is Good News for the Nominal Exchange Rate Under Optimal Monetary Policy: DSGE Theory and a Decade of Empirical Evidence). This is so even though in the long run of these models the nominal exchange rate must in expectation obey PPP.     

Liquidity commonality in order-driven trading: evidence from the Athens Stock Exchange

We examine the presence of liquidity commonality in the order-driven Athens Stock Exchange (ASE). Unlike the majority of liquidity commonality studies that focus on the bid–ask spread, our analysis extends deeper in the Limit Order Book, providing insight on the price impact of both small and large trades. We utilize a 6-month FTSE/ATHEX-20 intraday data set to estimate the liquidity factor model of Chordia et al. (2000). To this end, we conduct single-equation analysis as well as panel data analysis with the use of two-way clustered errors, correcting for simultaneous firm and time correlations. Moreover, we apply standard principal component analysis on stock liquidities to extract the marketwide liquidity component. We find that liquidity commonality is low at the bid–ask spread, whereas it increases deeper in the book; consequently, large traders face liquidity risks associated with both individual stock and marketwide illiquidity. Moreover, our empirical evidence hints that liquidity commonality is asynchronous, suggesting that the ASE trading process includes various levels of information speed. Our analysis contributes to the understanding of liquidity commonality in order-driven trading, especially in emerging markets like the ASE where trading activity is limited and information speed is low.     

The economic benefits of market timing the style allocation of characteristic-based portfolios

Many exchange traded funds track simple characteristic-based equity portfolios such as the market capitalization, the fundamental value or the inverse volatility portfolio. This paper provides theoretical and empirical evidence for the economic benefits in exploiting the timing-gains that result from the time-varying relative performance of these characteristic-based portfolios. Under a factor model for expected returns, we show that this dynamic portfolio allocation can be efficient across the low-dimensional set of characteristic-based portfolios. We assess the out-of-sample performance on the S&P 100 universe over the period 1990–2013 and show gains in stability and significant positive risk-adjusted returns for the dynamic style portfolio. We conduct several robustness tests and extensions confirming the benefits of dynamic style allocation across characteristic-based portfolios.